Daily Trade Experiment: One Year, One Stock, One Strategy

The Disfold Daily Trading Experiment: TSLA Daily Close Price / EMA-20 Long Only Crossover Trading Log

Day1: Wed, Jan 3, 2024: HOLD

Close: $248.42 > EMA20: $248.40 | Cash: $5,000 | Position Value: $0 | Shares: 0 | Net Liquid Value: $5,000

NOTE: Today’s action is HOLD, since it’s the first day there is no previous day to compare with and realize a cross.

Day2: Wed, Jan 3, 2024: SELL [HOLD]

Close: $238.45 < EMA20: $247.39 | Cash: $5,000 | Position Value: $0 | Shares: 0 | Net Liquid Value: $5,000

NOTE: Today’s action is actually HOLD, as we haven’t bought the stock yet. For Long-Short strategy, we would enter a SHORT position. The next cross (up) will be the beginning of the actual Long Only trading strategy.

Day17: Thu, Jan 25, 2024: HOLD

Close $182.63 < EMA20 $220.04 | Cash: $5,000 | Position Value: $0 | Shares: 0 | Net Liquid Value: $5,000

After missing quarterly earnings target, TSLA fell more than 12%!

NOTE: Summary on change vs buy-and-hold strategy up to now:

Change: Capital: 0% – TSLA: -23,41% ($182.63 vs $238.45 on Jan 3)

The Long Only strategy protected us from the fall, the Long-Short strategy would be gaining quite a lot already!

Day32: Thu, Feb 15, 2024: BUY

Close $200.45 > EMA20 $196.13 | Cash: -$9.98 | Position Value: $5,009.98 | Shares: 25 | Net Liquid Value: $5,000

3 buys (including commissions):

10 @ 200.295, 10 @ 200.33, 5 @ 200.745 = 5,009.98

The first purchase was slightly oversize with $9.98 over budget.

Day34: Tue, Feb 20, 2024: SELL

Close $193.76 < EMA20 $196.31 | Cash: $4,592.90 | Position Value: 0 | Shares: 0 | Net Liquid Value: $4,592.90

3 sales (including commissions):

10 @ 190.21, 8 @ 192.48, 7 @ 193.345 = 4,602.88 (reduced by the previous -$9.98 cash)

This first sale is heavily in loss with the trade over the initial buy and sale taking the Net Liquid Value down -8.14%, or $407.10. This is compared to a loss of -3.34% over the two days close for TSLA. The bad execution of both the previous buys and sales lead to a whopping over loss of -4.8%

This very heavy loss highlights one of the most important things to avoid with this crossover trading system: buying after a large move up above the EMA, and selling after a large move down below. The next trades will need techniques to mitigate this risk, see the main blog page for these techniques.

Day36: Thu, Feb 22, 2024: BUY

Close $197.41 > EMA20 $196.32 | Cash: -$104.13 | Position Value: $4,697.03 | Shares: 24 | Net Liquid Value: $4,592.90

3 buys (including commissions):

10 @ 193.49, 7 @ 196.65, 7 @ 197.94 = 4,697.03

The second purchase was also oversize with $104.13 over budget.

Day37: Fri, Feb 23, 2024: SELL

Close $191.97 < EMA20 $195.79 | Cash: $4,513.21 | Position Value: 0 | Shares: 0 | Net Liquid Value: $4,513.21

2 sales (including commissions):

10 @ 192.92, 14 @ 192.01 = 4617.34 (reduced by the previous -$104.13cash)

This second buy/sell trade, over 2 consecutive days, was executed with a much lower loss of $79.69, or -1.74%, compared to the actual loss of TSLA of between these 2 closes of -2.76%. This is thanks to a much better execution as the stock approached the EMA on both days.

Day38: Mon, Feb 26, 2024: BUY

Close $199.40 > EMA20 $196.06 | Cash: -$219.93 | Position Value: $4,733.135 | Shares: 24 | Net Liquid Value: $4,513.21

3 buys (including commissions):

10 @ 195.96, 7 @ 196.89, 7 @ 199.315 = 4,733.135

The second purchase was also oversize with $219.93 over budget.

Day43: Fri, Feb 23, 2024: SELL

Close $188.14 < EMA20 $196.75 | Cash: $4,380.93 | Position Value: 0 | Shares: 0 | Net Liquid Value: $4,380.93

3 sales (including commissions):

12 @ 195.34, 6 @ 186.87, 6 @ 189.26 = 4600.86 (reduced by the previous -$219.93cash)

This third buy/sell trade, over 5 days, was executed with a loss of $132.28, or -2.93%, compared to the actual loss of TSLA of between these closes of -5.65%. This is thanks to the execution of 50% position action as the stock approached the EMA on both days, as previously discussed.

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